OPINION: Revisions & Leverage — Data and the Cut Countdown
By Eric Rory Oso, Founder, Eric Rory Oso Investment Analysis (EROIA)
DISCLAIMER: The following content represents a personal opinion and is not intended as financial advice. This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Eric Rory Oso is not a licensed financial advisor and does not hold a Series 65 or other FINRA licensing. Readers should consult a licensed professional for investment advice.
Thesis
After July’s weak jobs report (+73k with significant downward revisions), President Trump removed BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarffer and later nominated E.J. Antoni to lead the agency. The law allows the President to remove the commissioner before the end of the four-year term, though a successor must be confirmed by the Senate. Given the circumstances surrounding the replacement of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, I see no reason why the decrease in jobs wouldn't have been seen as opportunistic by the Trump administration. Recent Fed communications emphasize balanced risks to employment and inflation. With unemployment at 4.2% and payroll growth near stall speed after revisions, several Fed officials note increasing downside risks to jobs even as inflation remains modestly above 2%. I would suggest that the Trump administration consider why this information was not used as a bargaining tool with the Fed.
A declining job market after corrections would pressure the Federal Reserve to question its stance on further cuts on an already fragile team in terms of cohesion. Jerome Powell, a cautious figure in his economic policy, has allowed the job market to enter statistically recessive periods because of minimal inflation percentages despite shifts in the job market. The Federal Reserve Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its mandate. This sharp decline in numbers could cause his strategy to unravel, giving the upper hand to a strategic move from Trump and access to more of his economic agenda.
Credit card debt is at an all-time high, and defaults on loans and credit are starting to rise. Credit-card balances reached $1.21 trillion in Q2 (approximately 5.9% year-over-year). Serious delinquency rates remained broadly stable for credit cards but increased for mortgages and HELOCs, while rising sharply for federal student loans. GDP saw an increase over the previous quarter; however, Trump's trade policies may have contributed to this shift, and the macroeconomic analysis is summarized as follows:
GDP=C+I+G+(X−M)
1. C — Consumption (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
· Spending by households on goods and services.
· Durable goods: long-lasting items (cars, appliances, furniture)
· Nondurable goods: short-lived items (food, clothing, fuel)
· Services: healthcare, education, financial services, recreation, housing rent
2. I — Investment (Gross Private Domestic Investment)
Spending by businesses and households on capital goods that will be used for future production.
· Nonresidential fixed investment:
o Structures: factories, offices, commercial buildings, infrastructure
o Equipment: machinery, computers, vehicles used in production
o Intellectual property products: software, R&D, entertainment originals
· Residential fixed investment: construction of new housing, improvements
· Change in private inventories: goods produced but not yet sold
3. G — Government Spending (Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment)
Spending by federal, state, and local governments on goods and services.
· Consumption: salaries of public employees, military operations, public services
· Investment: building infrastructure, schools, military equipment
· Note: Does not include transfer payments like Social Security or unemployment benefits (those count only when spent by recipients in C).
4. X — Exports (Goods & Services Sent Abroad)
· All goods and services produced domestically and sold to foreign buyers
· Examples: aircraft, agricultural products, financial services, software
5. M — Imports (Goods & Services Bought from Abroad)
· All goods and services produced overseas and purchased domestically
· Subtracted from GDP because they’re counted in C, I, or G but not produced domestically
Why (X – M)?
· Net exports = Exports minus Imports
· If exports > imports → trade surplus (adds to GDP)
· If imports > exports → trade deficit (subtracts from GDP)
From a purely mathematical perspective, imports are a subtraction, so when imports decline rapidly, the numbers can appear to rise, which may distort the accurate picture, similar to how the overinflation of business figures occurs when books are 'cooked.' Not claiming that the Trump administration is engaging in anything deceptive; however, the current global accountability and adaptation to Trump's trade policies not only influence their economic figures but ours as well. Our GDP is currently stabilizing under Trump and his party's agenda. It will take time to fully assess the effects; however, job numbers might have contributed to a shift toward Trump and his policies, effectively lowering interest rates and easing some financial pressures faced by businesses and individuals. Corporate financial reports and projections are outperforming earnings estimates, even amid the speculative nature of the current global market. Once again, it seems shortsighted for Trump to take this route, as it only fuels skepticism about his honesty in support of the consumer, the economy, and in providing essential data to investors and the financial sector. It was unnecessary.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained fairly stable despite ongoing declines in energy prices, especially fuel, and rising consumer utility bills. This report indicates a slowdown in inflation driven by Trump's trade policies, as consumer goods have increased again month-over-month, though there is a slight decrease compared to last year. Overall, the economy seems to be heading in a promising direction for investors and corporate profits; however, uncertainties regarding consumer behavior and policy impacts continue to pose challenges. Advances in AI and virtual workplaces might explain this, as companies seem able to thrive without fully supporting consumers and workers. This also highlights the often-overlooked area of microeconomics. On a smaller scale, how long does a corporation believe it can effectively rely on the support of financial investors and debt restructuring tools?
Pushing Powell out of his position and creating a more loyal environment around Trump has its benefits. Powell’s chair term runs through May 2026. A president could effectively remove a Fed chair; however, the question is untested and would likely face legal pushback. I wonder if Trump realizes that once again, he is placing families into a corporate-like structure for their finances. “Getting Good” has its benefits, but with cuts to education, how does this administration think they can rely on consumers' financial strength to offset the sins of the father? Is this administration about power, profit, opportunity, or something else entirely? Trump seems like the Devil of the Year; everyone thinks the worst of him, and because of that, transparency is his best tool to get what he needs. In my view, the job numbers were a missed opportunity for Trump. AI oversight and slavery in a global hub are simply unfeasible. This feels like a dementia-like attempt to stay relevant. I would ask Trump if he wants to keep playing the devil's advocate or step into the dream of a great America. Your vision is within reach. You don’t need to trample metaphorical ants to get there.
Supporting Referential Data
BLS leadership & removal authority
The BLS Commissioner serves a four-year term and may be removed sooner by the President.
https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/29/3BLS leadership change & nomination timing
President Trump nominated E.J. Antoni to lead BLS roughly a week after dismissing the prior commissioner.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-picks-heritage-economist-antoni-lead-us-labor-statistics-agency-2025-08-11/Monthly jobs report continuity
The White House stated it will keep publishing the monthly Employment Situation report.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-plans-keep-publishing-monthly-jobs-report-white-house-says-2025-08-12/Employment Situation (July 2025) — headline detail
July payrolls +73,000; unemployment rate 4.2%; prior months revised down.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdfEmployment Situation (current/archived landing)
Jobs report landing page with tables, charts, methodology, and archives.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htmBLS release calendar (Employment Situation)
Official schedule of upcoming Employment Situation publication dates.
https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htmFed policy stance (FOMC statement, July 30, 2025)
Current policy statement noting attention to risks on both sides of the dual mandate.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/monetary20250730a.htmPowell testimony — dual-mandate focus (June 24, 2025)
Prepared testimony emphasizing maximum employment and stable prices objectives.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/powell20250624a.htmPowell’s term and replacement timing
Chair term ends May 15, 2026 (Board term January 31, 2028).
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20220523e.htmGDP: Q2 2025 advance estimate (release page)
Real GDP +3.0% SAAR; contributions detail includes a decrease in imports (positive net exports).
https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-2nd-quarter-2025-advance-estimateGDP: Q2 2025 advance estimate (PDF)
Release PDF with tables and contribution notes referencing imports/net exports.
https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-07/gdp2q25-adv.pdfGDP data hub (ongoing updates)
Central BEA portal for GDP releases, tables, and historical series.
https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productGDP methodology primer
Official primer defining GDP via the expenditure approach: C + I + G + (X − M).
https://www.bea.gov/resources/methodologies/measuring-the-economyTransfers are not “G” in GDP
BEA FAQ confirming transfer payments are excluded from government spending in GDP.
https://www.bea.gov/help/faq/552CPI: July 2025 news release (PDF)
Headline CPI +0.2% m/m and +2.7% y/y; energy −1.1% m/m; gasoline −2.2% m/m; utilities higher y/y.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdfCPI program home + rolling summary
CPI portal and the current summary page with charts, tables, and archived releases.
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htmHousehold Debt & Credit (Q2 2025)
Total household debt $18.39T; credit-card balances about $1.21T; selected delinquency metrics rising in some categories.
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc
https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/householdcredit/data/pdf/HHDC_2025Q2Consumer credit flows (G.19)
Monthly flow data for revolving and non-revolving credit (SAAR).
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/g19.pdfS&P 500 earnings season context (FactSet)
Earnings season tracker indicating an elevated EPS beat rate relative to 5- and 10-year averages.
https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-july-18-2025
https://www.factset.com/earningsinsightTariff truce — trade backdrop
U.S.–China tariff truce extended 90 days; relevant to import dynamics and net-exports in GDP.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-china-extend-tariff-truce-by-90-days-staving-off-surge-duties-2025-08-11/
Supporting Economic Data
PCE price index (BEA)
Official measure of consumer inflation used by the Fed; monthly “Personal Income and Outlays” release includes PCE prices and spending.
https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-indexPersonal income (BEA)
National income data on wages, salaries, transfers, and saving that pair with PCE to track consumer capacity.
https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-incomeInternational trade in goods & services (Census/BEA)
Monthly FT-900 report with exports, imports, and the trade balance that feed GDP net-exports.
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/ft900.htmlAdvance monthly retail sales (Census)
High-frequency read on consumer spending across retail categories, seasonally adjusted.
https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.htmlManufacturers’ shipments, inventories & orders — Durable goods (Census)
Core capex proxy (nondefense ex-aircraft), orders, shipments, and inventories for manufacturing.
https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/index.htmlProducer Price Index (BLS)
Wholesale price pressures across goods and services; input to margin and pipeline-inflation analysis.
https://www.bls.gov/ppi/Employment Cost Index (BLS)
Quarterly compensation growth for wages and benefits; key labor-cost gauge beyond average hourly earnings.
https://www.bls.gov/ncs/ect/Job Openings and Labor Turnover (BLS)
JOLTS openings, hires, quits, and layoffs data to assess labor-market tightness and churn.
https://www.bls.gov/jlt/Productivity and Costs (BLS)
Output per hour and unit labor costs for the nonfarm business sector.
https://www.bls.gov/lpc/Unemployment insurance weekly claims (DOL/ETA)
Initial and continuing claims series for real-time labor-market stress.
https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims.aspFOMC calendars, statements, minutes, projection materials (Fed)
Official landing for meeting dates, policy statements, minutes, and Summary of Economic Projections.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htmH.15 selected interest rates (Fed)
Daily and historical policy and market rates (Fed funds, Treasuries, corporates).
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/Daily Treasury yield-curve rates (UST)
Official constant-maturity Treasury curve for term-structure and discount-rate work.
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-yield-curve-ratesCorporate profits (BEA)
National accounts measure of profits with IVA/CCA; sector and timing consistent with GDP.
https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/corporate-profitsFixed assets and consumer durable goods (BEA)
Stocks of private/public fixed assets and IP; depreciation and net capital stock.
https://www.bea.gov/data/wealth-fixed-assets/fixed-assetsIndustry economic accounts — GDP by industry (BEA)
Value added, gross output, and productivity by industry.
https://www.bea.gov/industryNew residential construction — permits, starts, completions (Census)
Monthly housing pipeline indicators by region and structure type.
https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/New residential sales (Census)
Sales, prices, and supply metrics for new single-family homes.
https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/Construction spending (Census)
Monthly nominal outlays by public/private sector and subsector (residential, nonresidential).
https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/Gasoline and diesel fuel update (EIA)
Weekly retail prices and historical series for motor fuels.
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/Electric Power Monthly (EIA)
Generation, sales, prices, and fuel mix across the U.S. electric sector.
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/Natural Gas Monthly (EIA)
Production, consumption, storage, and prices for U.S. natural gas markets.
https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/monthly/OMB FY budget (White House/OMB)
Executive budget documents, historical tables, and analytical perspectives.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Department of Education — Budget Service
ED budget justifications, appropriations history, and account detail.
https://www2.ed.gov/about/overview/budget/index.htmlUSTR press releases (trade policy)
Official announcements on tariffs, trade actions, and negotiations.
https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releasesHarmonized Tariff Schedule (USITC)
Official tariff classifications and rates for U.S. imports.
https://hts.usitc.gov/Import/Export Price Indexes (BLS)
Monthly price changes for U.S. imports and exports by end-use and locality.
https://www.bls.gov/mxp/Regional GDP — by state and metro (BEA)
Gross domestic product and personal income at the regional levels.
https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gdp-statePersonal income by state and county (BEA)
Subnational income, earnings by industry, and per-capita measures.
https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income-by-stateInternational investment position (BEA)
U.S. external balance sheet: assets, liabilities, and net position with the rest of the world.
https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-investment-position
